Crunching the Pinoy Big Brother (Season 2) Numbers

I've been watching Pinoy Big Brother (Season 2) lately (who isn't?) and ABS-CBN, the Philippine network broadcasting the show, released figures to discredit the emails going on accusing the show of rigging.

I've also been working with Excel a lot lately and so I decided to crunch the numbers from the show during a break:

10th Eviction			11th Eviction
Housemate	Percentage	Votes	Housemate	Percentage	Votes	Increase
HM#1	20.83%	329,108	HM#1	22.74%	560,690	70.37%
HM#2	18.19%	287,397	HM#2	19.94%	491,651	71.07%
HM#3	18.00%	284,395	HM#3	19.70%	485,734	70.80%
HM#4	17.84%	281,867	HM#4	17.38%	428,531	52.03%
HM#5	15.60%	246,476	HM#5	13.89%	342,479	38.95%
Bruce	5.79%	91,480	Bruce	6.35%	156,569	71.15%
Nel	3.75%	59,249
	Total	1,579,973		Total	2,465,654	56.06%

What does the table show us? As Nel got evicted on the 10th Eviction Night, he was a longshot to get in as he almost trailed Bruce (as revealed by the show's director Lauren Dyogi) by around 42,000 votes. The table also shows us Bruce got the biggest percentage increase after the 10th Eviction Night, and was the Housemate whose supporters worked hard the most. However, Bruce never had a fighting chance since the 5th highest vote-getter had twice the number of votes.

Assuming the rankings did not change over the Eviction Nights, the figures also indicate that the Top 3 vote-getters had comparable percentage increases, meaning their supporters had relatively done the same effort in saving their pick. This consistency could lead us to conclude that the Top 3 ranked Housemates remained the same in-between eviction nights.

What's interesting to note is that support for the the Housemates ranked #4 and #5 had lagged. This could imply if this trend continues, Housemate #5 will have no chance in catching up with Housemate #4.

If Housemate #5 has any mathematical chance of getting to the Big4 is that Housemate #4 retains his/her growth rate and Housemate#5 increases by 210% (or gets a vote total three times of what he/she has right now!). It would be now safe to assume that Housmate#5 is out of it. If that Housemate is not evicted by Thursday, either a his/her supporters have pulled of the greatest revolution since EDSA in 1986 or ABS-CBN pulled off the biggest miracle since Garci in 2001.

Who is Housemate#5? Your guess is as good as mine.


Tags: Pinoy Big Brother